As of 11 September 2017, IHS Markit expects that annualized real GDP growth in the third quarter, previously estimated at 3.1% in our August US macro forecast (released on 10 August), will be cut to 2.1%. This markdown, which is the same as in our latest US macro forecast (released on 7 September), is mostly due to a weak construction report for July, a flattening rig count, and the destruction caused by Hurricane Harvey. Our real consumer spending growth forecast currently stands at 2.5%.
The BEA’s second estimate of second-quarter real GDP growth (annualized) was revised up, from 2.6% to 3.0%—the fastest pace in more than two years. Consumer spending growth was bumped up from 2.8% to 3.3%, with stronger spending on phone services, used cars, and electricity and natural gas. Our current thinking on the third estimate of real GDP growth is that a revision is unlikely.
The US GDP tracking system uses our US macro quarterly forecasting econometric model, newly released data and revisions, economic judgment, and methods that replicate the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) data-generation process.
Chris G. Christopher, Jr. is the Executive Director of US Macro, Global Economics, and Consumer Markets for IHS Markit.
Posted 11 September 2017