Economics & Country Risk Blog

IHS Markit US GDP Tracker: 19 September update




As of 19 September 2017, IHS Markit estimates that real US GDP will increase at a 1.7% annual rate in the third quarter, lower than our latest US macro forecast of 2.1% growth, released on 7 September. The August CPI, retail sales, industrial production, and housing starts reports all decreased our real GDP outlook for the third quarter. Our forecast for real consumer spending growth currently stands at 1.9% for the quarter, down from the September forecast of 2.5%.

The BEA’s second estimate of second-quarter real GDP growth (annualized) was revised up, from 2.6% to 3.0%—the fastest pace in more than two years. Consumer spending growth was bumped up from 2.8% to 3.3%, with stronger spending on phone services, used cars, and electricity and natural gas. Our current thinking on the third estimate of real GDP growth is that it will drop a tick, to 2.9%.

The US GDP tracking system uses our US macro quarterly forecasting econometric model, newly released data and revisions, economic judgment, and methods that replicate the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) data-generation process.

Chris G. Christopher, Jr. is the Executive Director of US Macro, Global Economics, and Consumer Markets for IHS Markit.
Posted 19 September 2017

About The Author

Executive Director of US Macro, Global Economics, and Consumer Markets

Dr. Chris G. Christopher, Jr. is Executive Director in the US Macro, Global Economics, and Consumer Economics for IHS Markit. He brings over 25 years of experience as an economist, academic, forecaster, and  demographer. Prior to joining IHS, Christopher worked for FedEx Services in the forecasting department and as the Chief Econometrician for OIT. In addition, he worked as a research economist at Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI); the New York State Legislative Tax Study Commission; and as an associate professor, administrator, and university lecturer in econometrics, economics, and business. Christopher holds a Bachelor of Arts in economics and political science, Master of Arts in economics, Master of Arts in mathematics, Doctorate of Philosophy in economics from the University at Albany. Dr. Christopher has taught graduate and undergraduate courses at various business schools and economics departments.

Dr. Christopher writes a quarterly column for CSCMP’s Supply Chain Quarterly, has several academic publications, and writes perspective pieces for the mass media. He is a member of the Econometric Society, American Economic Association, and National Association of Business Economists (NABE). Chris is on the board of economic advisors for the New York State Assembly, and a member of the NABE Travel & Transportation Roundtable. In addition, Chris is a NABE Certified Business Economist (CBE), and Consensus Economics 2013 forecast accuracy award winner (US GDP & CPI).