As of 19 September 2017, IHS Markit estimates that real US GDP will increase at a 1.7% annual rate in the third quarter, lower than our latest US macro forecast of 2.1% growth, released on 7 September. The August CPI, retail sales, industrial production, and housing starts reports all decreased our real GDP outlook for the third quarter. Our forecast for real consumer spending growth currently stands at 1.9% for the quarter, down from the September forecast of 2.5%.
The BEA’s second estimate of second-quarter real GDP growth (annualized) was revised up, from 2.6% to 3.0%—the fastest pace in more than two years. Consumer spending growth was bumped up from 2.8% to 3.3%, with stronger spending on phone services, used cars, and electricity and natural gas. Our current thinking on the third estimate of real GDP growth is that it will drop a tick, to 2.9%.
The US GDP tracking system uses our US macro quarterly forecasting econometric model, newly released data and revisions, economic judgment, and methods that replicate the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) data-generation process.
Chris G. Christopher, Jr. is the Executive Director of US Macro, Global Economics, and Consumer Markets for IHS Markit.
Posted 19 September 2017