IHS Maritime is using advanced analytics to build data on fleet capacity and help customers make informed investment and competitive intelligence decisions.
How are maritime leaders addressing major market dynamics and planning for the future?
We are currently leading to the period of consolidation, as obviously we had a period of over-capacity and low freight rates. At the moment maritime leaders, all the leaders within the industry, are trying to solve a question of, which assets are going to return, or going to give the best return, and where is the future trend in trade and shipping going to be?
IHS ship capacity forecast is trying to answer that question in long-term, and it differs because we use rather sophisticated model that is trying to give an answer at long-term after 10 years or more period, rather than give an answer based on sentiment, that is usually the way that these decisions are being made in shipping.
How has the maritime industry evolved in their level of analytical sophistication?
Historically, major decisions in the shipping industry have been made mostly on sentiment or on the new orders. IHS Maritime is developing a new product that is trying to answer those questions in a more sophisticated way, using advanced analytics, and using a vast array of data that’s available within IHS. We are using a combination of our energy data, trade data, and economics data, trying to answer and support our findings.
Our findings are going to revolve around three major things. We’re trying to predict what is going to be the stock of the new vessels in the market, what are going to be retirements of the vessels in the market, and what are going to be the new buildings. These three answers should actually help everyone in a strategic decision in terms of the asset management and in terms of the decision where the asset, where the money is going to be invested into which assets, or rather, which fleet size. And it will help certainly certain manufacturers or producers into where they should raise their strategies around.
Maritime players should be looking farther ahead strategically
Maritime industry had been looking in advance usually at three-year periods. With the recent changes in the industry that have been happening in the last few years, and as a consequence of the global crisis and the big shifts in the shipping industry, we’ve seen a larger amount of private equity investors coming in, which is changing the structure of the ownership in the industry.
Industry has been traditionally owned by the private owners, while now we have more public owners coming in to the industry, and those public owners are requesting, actually, answers to the questions that usually haven’t been asked in the long-term. So, the industry should be really looking into the long-term, to give the long-term answer for the periods from three to ten years, if not longer periods of time.
Dalibor Gogic Senior Analyst, Research & Analysis, IHS Maritime & Trade